Assessment current to 31 August, with 30-day outlook. The NPC's formal removal of Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli — a CMC purge among the most significant in decades — headlines a high-severity month. Key judgements, dashboard, watch items and register.
Assessment current to 31 August, with 30-day outlook. China publicly displays the H-6N carrying the nuclear-capable Jing Lei-1 ALBM under J-20 escort — what it changes for the deterrence balance. Key judgements, watch items and full register.
Assessment current to 31 August, with 30-day outlook. High-severity signals reach their highest recorded share for this cluster as pressure concentrates below the escalation threshold — bottom line, key judgements, watch items and full signal register.
Taiwan Strait Risk Monitor, September 2026 edition. Beijing institutionalises the east-of-Taiwan patrol cycle as vessel sightings run at four times last year's pace — while Taiwan posts its strongest recorded deterrence-investment month. Verdict this period: no clear movement, and why.